2/25/2006

Predictions

I now have bronchitis. Visited the doctor yesterday and was told the lungs are clear but he doesn't know whether its viral or bacterial. That's perfect because the coughing has made my back worse.

Maybe, all these evil spirits that were supposed to come out during that yoga class and enter the floor through the third eye got caught on the way out and are embedded somewhere in my body. 55 days into my new health program - this is where I've wound up. Things will go as they've got a mind to go.

The reason that I ask for predictions on the political front is that they give us a chance to question our beliefs, and what we think we know. In other words I like to try and bring some little bit of scientific principle to what is often a blank screen that we toss our own prejudices on.

I tried to give President Bush the benefit of the doubt before he went into Iraq by saying that if this didn't turn into a civil war with house to house fighting - then the President understood what was going on better than me.

I try to get a gauge on how political the president is by asking for predictions about whether he will stand up to the congress about the port issue. Would he really risk it all for something he says he believes in. In fact, if he did - I could at least say he really does stick to his principles and core beliefs.

It is tough to know what's going on inside the white house because secrecy is critical to their operations. It becomes clear that President Bush has turned off a lot of conservative republicans with the Iraqi invasion - but now I get the feeling just because the true conservative doesn't want to get involved in this foreign policy nation building business - but also the money involved.

That brings us to what I think is the heart of the matter - is the war good for business? On the one hand - there are chants from the left that the war is enriching the pockets of (fill in the company name here) and that the secret owners of society are getting richer. The cry is that this is all about oil.

On the other hand, prominent conservatives are decrying the fact that the surplus has been squandered and that the combination of tax-cuts and more spending has become dangerous.

Follow the money.

There are other theories floating around that the Bushes are tied in some way to the UAE. So what is their prediction?

Lester has supplied two possible endings: one that Iraq does go into, or perhaps is already, in a civil war and that the President will be forced to withdraw.

Two: that the factions will unite against the U.S. and force the U.S. out.

At the bottom of these predictions is a question about the will of the United States, the purpose of the war, whether Sunnis and Shiites can get together, and even more interesting what will happen when and if the U.S. leaves.

My own hunch is that this is some world domination attempt that was dreamed up when the USSR went kaput. And that the christian fundamentalists also see it as a worthy crusade. The problem is that this "feeling" doesn't lead to a thought experiment or prediction. It doesn't tell you what the world domination powers will do next. They seem to back down if the Americans turn against them? How many times can you fool the people?

Yes, the media did a bad job going in the build-up to Iraq. They were like little kids waving flags and playing inbeds with no idea of what the consequences of all this would be. Now where do they stand? I don't think they know much about what is going on from their bunkers.

Now they're following the next story which is how the emperor has no clothes, how the whole thing is falling apart. That's just as good a story to them as playing soldier was. There two stories they love: the rise of an idol and the toppling of an idol. In that respect they're neutral.

Anyway - predictions. According to my theory president Bush and his companions will never pull out of Iraq. Never. No matter what. This is a part of their religious, moral, and empire-building plan. It cannot be undone.

Now the people may get sick of it all and elect someone who promises to end the war, but that's another story for another time.